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May 2002

Telematics: Set for Take-off?

Home In a word

Firstly, that word ‘Telematics’. Essentially the combination of telecoms and computing, its most common meaning is information services delivered via a communications network. ‘Automotive telematics’, increasingly referred to as just ‘telematics’ although this ignores other large areas of telematics activity, refers to any kind of in-vehicle information or communication service that relies on a wireless communication link and forms part of the growing M2M market. As such it enables a range of new services and applications that integrate wireless communication technology into cars. The car should then become both more efficient as a product and capable of offering more services to its users - ranging from personalised traffic information, to entertainment to new safety features.

For example, as far as efficiency is concerned, a car equipped with a telematics unit can direct a driver to a desired location, while providing real-time traffic information, customised for a given route. Drivers and their passengers may also be able to receive and send voice-activated emails while on the road. A further feature, good for safety, is ‘accident alert’. If an accident occurs, this automatically notifies the emergency services of the impact of the collision and the exact location of the vehicle on a map – allowing a faster, more accurate response.

The market projections for auto telematics are huge – of the order of a $6bn market in Europe by 2006 from a low base in 2000 and several times that in the US. By that time estimates suggest it will represent 2.3% of the European car market or a substantial 11% of the current European mobile communications market.

An important opportunity, or just more outlandish forecasts?

What’s driving it?

There are a number of indicators that the time is now right for the telematics market to accelerate over the next few years, for example:

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Increasing traffic congestion.  In it latest transport policy guidelines dated December 2001, the European Commission expressed growing concern about the effects of road traffic congestion. Its most recent study on the subject showed that the external costs of road traffic congestion amount to 0.5 % of Community GDP. Traffic forecasts for the next 10 years show that, if nothing is done, road congestion will increase significantly by 2010. The costs attributable to congestion are calculated to increase by 142 % to reach EUR 80 billion a year, approximately 1 % of Community GDP.
Other figures indicate that citizens of EU countries spend an average of one hour a day on the road, with more than 30% of this time spent in traffic jams – and that this time is increasing year-on-year. Clearly anything that can help to reduce this, by providing real-time traffic data to help drivers avoid jams and use alternative routes, is going to be popular. Even if this is not possible, a means of communicating and receiving news and information-based services while stuck in traffic could help to make the time spent more productive and even perhaps entertaining.

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Road safety. Consumers around the world are increasingly concerned about road safety. An in-car telematics device that automatically notifies emergency authorities in case of an accident, can reduce the time it takes for an ambulance to arrive on scene, and thus reduce the number of overall traffic casualties. Governments and companies around the world are working to improve safety, mobility, efficiency, and productivity. Telematics can play a major role in this effort.

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Location technologies have become much cheaper. The most common technology used to locate a car is the Global Positioning Systems (GPS), although the EU is expecting the Galileo system to become even more effective in a few years time. The first GPS receiver was far too expensive for non-professional use, but the price has now come down to about $15 a unit with further reductions in prospect.

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Wireless networks are well established. Telematics applications use mobile communication between an in-car device and a central unit. Mobile networks already cover virtually all of Europe, with GPRS data services being rolled out everywhere prior to 3G. The communication infrastructure necessary for telematics is therefore now in place. In addition to this, of course, mobile operators have invested billions in 3G licenses and network infrastructure. For them, telematics presents a whole new market opportunity for gaining returns on those investments.

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The automobile market is mature. The European market for passenger vehicles is mature, and increasing competition continues to erode profit margins. Car makers see telematics as a way to differentiate their products. Also, to establish a stronger relationship with their customers and to increase revenues during the lifetime of a car. Indeed, virtually all the major car makers including Audi, BMW, Citroen, Fiat, Ford, Mercedes, Renault and VW either have or will shortly launch initial telematics services. General Motors’ OnStar service is the clear market leader and claims to have over 2 million users in the US already, and adding over 100,000 a month.

And the brakes?

Of course there are also less favourable issues, for example:

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Telematics services are complex and require multifunctional skills. Specialised knowledge from at least five major industries is required to make telematics services work - computer hardware and software, consumer electronics, mobile communications as well as automotive. None of these industries can deliver telematics services on their own. This is good, in the sense that there are a wide range of opportunities to enter the market.  However, it typically takes a long time to establish partnerships and this could severely delay telematics market growth.

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Technology push, not market pull. It is still unclear whether European consumers are actually willing to pay for telematics services. The initial response from European consumers has been rather luke warm - much less than in the US. For example, General Motors launched its OnStar service in Germany two years ago. However, so far few car buyers seem to make the effort to open their OnStar account, even when the service is free of charge for the first year. However, this may have something to do with the services offered. OnStar includes services like roadside assistance, automatic airbag deployment notification, stolen vehicle tracking and guidance for lost drivers. There are indications that these (designed as they were for the US market) may not be the services to best capture the imagination of European drivers. 

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There are no standards for telematics technology. As of today, there are no common technology standards and protocols for telematics. This may suit car makers striving for differentiation but possibly not their technology partners. Also, this creates a barrier for support organisations – such as car roadside assistance and garage services. These will be disinclined to invest in technology that is specific to each make of car.

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The pace of ICT technology development versus the life span of a car. The pace of innovation in ICT markets is much faster than in the car industry. Developing a car takes an average of 5 to 6 years and the product life is about 10 years. Most ICT components (such as displays and integrated circuits) have a life span of 18 - 24 months at most. This makes equipping their vehicles with telematics technology more problematic for car makers. Of course, it may also represent a sizeable aftermarket.

Setting the destination

The US was the initial market for telematics and is still considerably larger than the EU market. However it is interesting to note that the characteristics and key issues in the EU are already quite different to those of the US. For example in the US, services that provide safety and security have been the leading application, with new services that provide content and integration of mobile services likely to take the lead in the future. In Europe, meanwhile, there is a greater interest in travel information to cope with traveling between countries with different languages and cultures. Traffic data and routing information are also seen as more important in the EU. Safety and security is much further down the list of priorities.

It is also interesting to note that what represents good value for users is not necessarily viewed in the same light by car makers. For example, features that provide good value and frequent usage for users include: navigation, real time traffic reports, voice-driven e-mail and SMS and identifying parking locations. Those that provide good value but infrequent usage for users include: accident assistance, airbag deployment notification, roadside assistance and stolen vehicle recovery.

Car makers, though, also see telematics as a way to improve customer relations – i.e. it has CRM potential. Features with strong CRM potential include: service booking, intelligent ordering of replacement parts, remote diagnostics, roadside assistance and stolen vehicle recovery. Those with more limited CRM potential include: navigation, real time traffic reports, route selection and remote immobilisation.    

To make the market predictions add up, our calculations indicate that a growing percentage of new cars in Europe will need to be fitted with telematics from the factory – well over 40% by 2006. Of these, the vast majority at that time (75-80%) must be prepared to sign up and open service accounts. More than 60% of those must then actually use them. That looks like a tall order. The attractions of telematics are clearly there and the market looks like it will develop consistently. As currently envisaged, though, it looks likely to grow rather more slowly than predictions suggest. 

 © e-principles 2002

Robin Duke-Woolley

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