In these uncertain times, users have begun to concentrate their thinking on what offers clear business benefit as opposed to what merely represents a technology nice-to-have. The days of buying new communications products and services simply because they look nice and sound trendy are disappearing fast.

For service providers too it increasingly looks like a critical transition point is taking place. Erstwhile market leaders are suddenly collapsing under huge debt burdens, providing new opportunities for smaller rivals to take their place. At such times, those that continue to invest in key capabilities for the future stand to gain heavily in tomorrow’s marketplace compared with rivals that cannot.

Catering for voice/data convergence to IP looks like being one of these key capabilities. The rapid growth in data traffic initiated by Internet use is set to continue. Indeed, with the growing emphasis on interactive entertainment services for consumers and service packages for the SME business market, if anything data traffic is likely to accelerate faster in the foreseeable future.  At the same time, voice traffic in both fixed and mobile networks is also growing, albeit at a slower pace than data. The need for a single infrastructure to cope with this growth has never been clearer.

What does this mean for ISPs?

VoIP becomes critical 

There is clearly no prospect that traditional PSTN circuit-switched technology could form the basis of this single infrastructure. All attempts over the last 20-25 years to do so have failed to provide an adequate long-term solution.

Equally, though, there is no prospect of moving quickly to an all-IP infrastructure. There is simply too much invested already in traditional PSTN systems and current market conditions will, if anything, make getting a good return on that investment even more crucial. Yet competition to incumbent telcos will not go away and the trend towards an all-IP infrastructure is now unstoppable. The transition period will be long, though, and may well be a major factor for much of the next decade.   

This, in turn, has put renewed emphasis on PSTN-IP interworking. Related VoIP technology developments are a critical part of this, with many new service revenue opportunities coming into focus as a result.

Analysts clearly agree. In recent months, Forrester Research has said it believes the voice market is now “ripe for reinvention” due to VoIP. IDC too has said it believes VoIP revenue opportunities are strong, in spite of the downturn. Gartner has gone further, urging IT managers to plan carefully for what it sees as the “inevitable” move towards IP-based converged voice and data networks over the next few years.

Indeed Microsoft has already responded to this, including VoIP elements in the shape of SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) to its latest Windows XP release.

Dialup continues

In spite of the availability of high speed broadband access technologies such as xDSL and cable modems, for many home and SOHO users Internet and remote corporate access will continue to mean dialup via modems for the foreseeable future. Clearly, the remote access server or concentrator (RAS) that handles this type of access will continue to perform this basic role for some time to come.

More than this, though, the number of new users is still growing rapidly. Together with existing users, this ensures that most in Europe will also continue to have a single non-ISDN phone line that is used both for Internet access and making/receiving phone calls. The prospects for V.92-based modems look promising. Not only does this standard offer modem-on-hold for receiving incoming PSTN calls while still connected to the Internet, it also provides faster dial-up and connection than V.90. Further, it offers faster upstream line speeds than V.90. These are important features for service providers wishing to move into the voice services market using VoIP, with the aim of offering higher value services. 

RAS as strategic asset

In the rush to cater for faster data speeds, it is often forgotten that, in terms of raw traffic, growth is where data is but voice is still where the revenue is. To a much greater extent than data, voice is still an added value service and the potential for building on this with new IP-based developments is now strengthening.

Together with the increasing trend towards network convergence, this has shed new light on the humble RAS as more than just a POTS access controller. The way is clear for it to evolve into a VoIP gateway and, as a result, a platform for Unified Messaging and an increasingly wide range of SIP-based services. Indeed, the RAS now looks set to evolve into a strategic, high value asset as an IP converged services platform.

With these thoughts in mind, perhaps investment in VoIP even looks more solid now than investment in 3G mobile – something that could not have been said just 6 months ago.

© e-principles 2001

Robin Duke-Woolley

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